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The global market for electric-drive buses is expected to grow steadily over the next six years, with a compound annual growth rate of 26% from 2012 to 2018, according to a recent report from Pike Research, which is part of Navigant’s Energy Practice. By 2018, more than 75,000 electric drivetrain buses are expected to be in service around the world.
“The biggest challenge for electric-drive technologies has been the cost premium over conventional diesel buses or buses that run on compressed natural gas,” said Lisa Jerram, senior research analyst. “This premium has maintained for hybrids, even as they have seen significant adoption in the North American market. Fuel economy savings are critical to making the case for bus operators to pay more, especially in developed countries that are facing increasing austerity in their public budgets. Typically, hybrid buses need to show fuel economy improvements of around 40%, at current U.S. diesel prices, to pay off the price premium over the life of the bus.”
While growth in the e-bus market will accelerate strongly in certain regions, including Eastern Europe and Latin America, by far the largest sales volumes will come in the Asia-Pacific region, the study finds. More than 15,000 electric buses will be sold in the Asia-Pacific in 2018—75% of the world total. North American sales are expected to reach just fewer than 2,500 in the same year.
For additional information, visit www.navigant.com/pikeresearch.