Warren Buffet once said, “Only when the tide goes out do you
discover who’s been swimming naked.” The current high level of business
curtailments and closures, along with record layoffs, tends to confirm that
many companies have been operating very marginally. It shouldn’t come as any
surprise, I guess. As long as revenues were growing, companies could meet cost
and debt obligations. But with a brief interruption or slowdown of income, a
lot of operations found themselves in big trouble. Whatever happened to saving
for a rainy day?
I started my first job in 1972. Shortly thereafter, we had a period of high
gasoline prices and inflation. My company wasn’t making any money; it was being
squeezed by increasingly higher costs and flat revenue. Later, in 1980, we
suffered through the Carter years-nice guy, but not our best president.
Inflation was rampant, and all of us worried about layoffs during that
downturn. It was a difficult time, worrying about my job on the one hand and wondering
when things would turn around on the other.
Our recession this time is quite different,
as it seems to be the culmination of many factors gone wrong. We have suffered
through perhaps our worst administration, one that was able to make the wrong
decision at nearly every turn. We are running astounding deficits, and the new
administration is planning to spend us out of the recession. I don’t know when
things are going to get better, but I do know one thing-they will get better.
What you do in your overall operation might ensure that your company is able to
hang on until business recovers.
Now's the Time
Energy prices have fallen nicely lately due to decreased demand,
but I doubt that this will be the case when the recovery arrives. Plants that
have spent some of their profits on energy savings, yield improvements and
training will be well-positioned to enjoy the recovery. Marginal operations
that have not invested properly will be left behind when business picks up.
While business is miserable now, if you can afford it, this is a great time to
invest in energy efficiency. Suppliers are very hungry for business, and you
surely have some downtime capability for installation. Not only will these
kinds of projects save your operation money right away, but when fuel prices
bounce back to $10+/MCF, you will be able to earn more money without sending
all of your profits to the gas company. Steps you can take include:
- Load your kiln better! Increase the ware:furniture
ratio as much as possible. Decrease the kiln car weight.
- Invest in fuel-saving
systems. Pulse firing systems have demonstrated savings of up to 45% with
better control and higher yields. If you are using something else, you are probably
wasting money.
- Implement a heat recovery project. Even
simple heat recovery projects can save money. One of my clients has done
numerous in-house projects, ranging from mild heating of combustion air to
simple recuperators that heat plant water and casting slip. If you can’t afford
an outside company to engineer and install a large-scale heat exchange system,
consider some smaller projects that you can execute with your existing staff.
- Train your people to look
for savings. In survival, it’s everyone’s job to save money. Using all of your
people to look for opportunities only makes good sense.
The business cycle will eliminate the companies that have been marginally
operated for the past several years. Those who survive will do very well in the
recovery. I hope that your company is one of the survivors!
Any views or opinions expressed in this column
are those of the author and do not represent those of
Ceramic
Industry, its staff, Editorial Advisory Board or BNP Media.
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