AAMA Predicts Fenestration Industry Trends
The American Architectural Manufacturers Association has released the 2015/2016 Study of the U.S. Market for Windows, Doors and Skylights.
The American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) has released the AAMA 2015/2016 Study of the U.S. Market for Windows, Doors and Skylights. This bi-annual report delivers timely information on residential and non-residential market trends and product relationships for windows, doors, skylights, curtain walls and storefronts. Forecasts are based on projections of construction activity as of March 2016.
Total housing starts continued their growth curve in 2015 with strong gains in both the single- and multi-family segments, between 10-12%, respectively, compared to multi-family gains of 14% and single-family starts increasing by 4% in 2014. Going forward, the overall new housing market is expected to continue at a strong level of growth through 2017. Single-family starts are expected to take the lead in 2016 and experience a 14% increase. While the Northeast and Midwest regions of the U.S. have experienced stronger growth in the last two years, the South and West are expected to be more dynamic over that same time period.
In terms of fenestration, the demand for prime windows improved moderately in 2015 and increased overall by just over 3%, driven by continued strong new housing demand, although not as strong as originally forecasted at the beginning of the year. The demand for windows in new housing increased by just over 6% in 2015, with double-digit increases forecasted for the next two years as the housing recovery continues. Meanwhile, remodeling and replacement window demand increased modestly again, by just over 1% in 2015, with growth in this segment also likely to be somewhat improved in 2016 against the backdrop of strengthening existing home sales.
Residential skylights closed the year with a growth rate of just over 2% over 2014 volume. New construction skylight activity was up 8%, while remodeling and replacement skylight activity was up 1% vs. 2014.
In 2015, residential construction activity experienced moderate growth, with a similar net positive effect on the entry door market. Total volume reflected a 5% growth rate vs. 2014. Looking forward, growth is expected to continue at a similar pace of 4% in both 2016 and 2017.
Due to the lag of approximately 12 months between contract awards and actual non-residential construction, the relevant metric for 2015 product demand market is the increase in non-residential contract awards of 15%. In 2015, the market declined 5% overall, and all segments experienced a slight decline. Manufacturing/warehouses declined 7%, stores/mercantile building declined 4%, while office buildings/hotels/institutional declined 5%. Going forward, non-residential contract awards are expected to increase in 2015 throughout 2018.
The 2015 market for non-residential entry doors in the U.S. has continued to experience growth, up 5% over 2014 and up 16% since 2013. Storefront applications and site-fabricated commercial windows combine to account for 54% of the non-residential market. Shop-fabricated commercial windows, which include residential type and light commercial windows, as well as architectural windows, represents 24% of the market, with curtain wall accounting for the remaining 22% of non-residential vision area. All of these categories were up from 2013.
For more information, visit www.aamanet.org.