Builder Confidence Rises Four Points in October 2017
The component gauging current sales conditions rose five points to 75, and the index charting sales expectations in the next six months increased five points to 78.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose four points to a level of 68 in October on the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This was the highest reading since May.
“This month’s report shows that home builders are rebounding from the initial shock of the hurricanes,” said Granger MacDonald, NAHB chairman and a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. “However, builders need to be mindful of long-term repercussions from the storms, such as intensified material price increases and labor shortages.”
“It is encouraging to see builder confidence return to the high 60s levels we saw in the spring and summer,” said Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist. “With a tight inventory of existing homes and promising growth in household formation, we can expect the new home market continue to strengthen at a modest rate in the months ahead.”
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three HMI components posted gains in October. The component gauging current sales conditions rose five points to 75, and the index charting sales expectations in the next six months increased five points to 78. Meanwhile, the component measuring buyer traffic ticked up a single point to 48.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South rose two points to 68, and the Northeast rose one point to 50. Both the West and Midwest remained unchanged at 77 and 63, respectively.